dan ryan

Graph of the day: Medicaid, Medicare patients most satisfied with health costs : Who knew that government run health care could actually produce customer who are satisfied with the management of costs? Anyone who wanted to know.

Calculated Risk: Impact of Sandy on Employment : The noise around this is important. We will get a much clearer picture of the next several weeks to pull out the underling trends rather than the noise.

What Happens if Congress Extends Tax Cuts for Those Making 500,000?  This is another good idea about how to switch the cliff into a gradual slope which balances the short term need for economic support with long term need for fiscal restraint. We shall see how the negotiation unfolds.

Not a simple mismatch but a lack of demand. Here  are the chairman's comments about the sluggish recovery.

As noted  here , Papa John did not understand the free market theory that he cares so much for. We have seen a lot of this lately as the narrative related to the fiscal cliff has shown that if you a truly free market the fiscal cliff would have been the necessary purging of the wretch in the economy. Consistency is key to understand conviction from convenience.

More  news  in the right direction. The housing industry continues to show signs of the methodical recovery. Slow and deliberate but steady and upward.

I think they will be slightly above 840.  There is some possibility that we will get back a million starts by the end of 2013.  This is will continue to help positive GDP growth in 2013.  

Existing-Home Sales Rise in October with Ongoing Price and Equity Gains | realtor.org : Another piece of positive news in the housing market.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Five Points in November : The climb continues... I think by middle of next year we can finally yet expansion or 'good' conditions.

Ezra Klein walks through the current standoff  here . I think that the Democrats clearly have the advantage and there is no reason to not wait until January 1st to work on all aspects of the fiscal cliff including the raising of the debt ceiling. A simple framework is not the answer in the short term. There will be an inherent pressure to get a deal done after the changes have come into place rather than before. We may not like it but that is the reality of human compromise.

Still unpacking.  Here  is the report.

Economist's View: Fed Watch: Fiscal Madness : I think we will get there.  We need to be patient and work towards a solution that has the least amount determent to the current recovery but puts into place the building blocks of long term fiscal stability.

Europe in deep recession

There is a change in how economic analysis needs to be performed. Why do we disconnect policy, morality, justice and social conventions from economics as if it is not always seen through that lens from all ends of the spectrum. When we look at the current writings of John Taylor and then review the writings of Joseph Stiglitz one can plainly see they would look at the same data one thousand times and always point to how it solidifies their case. It has seemed that economics has become a religion precisely because it pretends to be non ideological.

Don’t Mess with the Mouse It's disappointing when you have an actual sensible position come out of the Republican Party and have it redacted almost immediately. I am fully onboard for reform in this area.

Transatlantic Divergence - NYTimes.com : This is some quasi-real time data that seems to demonstrate the fallacies of austerity.  However, the real demonstration of the fallacy of austerity is for evermore the urgency of the fiscal cliff. I don't know how you can argue for deficit reduction and austerity and be afraid of the fiscal cliff.

Calculated Risk: California: Unemployment Rate falls to 10.1% in October, Payroll jobs increase 45,800 : This is some good news along with some promising trends.  The thought of the balanced budget seems very optimistic   We shall see is this comes to fruition.

An interesting look and incentive to work at lower income levels  here .

EconoMonitor : Ed Dolan's Econ Blog » Two-Month Spike in CPI Appears to have Run its Course; Deflation Risk Nosedives on Election Outcome I'm not sure about Ed's conclusion but we certainly continue to have too little inflation.

What the New President Should Consider by Paul Volcker | The New York Review of Books Lots of goods points. Still need to chew on what this means in reality and not what it means in the abstract where you have two rational positions looking to compromise.

Where Are We on the Laffer Curve?, David Henderson | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty I couldn't disagree more. The lack of real analysis is glaring.

Correction: Total Government Spending on Higher Education, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty I am happy that the correction was made but unhappy that the implications related to error were not also addressed.

Can Congress Raise Taxes on the Rich without Raising Their Rates? Maybe So it seems that it may be possible but only with a lot of complexity whereas simply moving the marginal rate, which will move with NO action seems simple and not complex. This seems like a pound of flesh mentality. I still advise to move forward with the Democratic plan as is and wait to see how the House responds. The Democrars and the White House don't have any leverage until January 1 so don't give it away as it may be needed to ensure a resonably and hopefully longer term debt ceiling relief. I would love to see the ceiling raised to 20 trillion so we can get work rather than debate whether or not we will honor our obligations. It seems inconceivable that we would not do this and do this always. If we want to reduce the debt simply do it the normal way have more revenues than expenditures.

Calculated Risk: A few more thoughts on Fiscal Agreement : I like the point that agreement could be met this year and a bill could be crafted to lower  marginal rates for those who are under $250,000 effective January 1, 2013 without having to break the Republicans no increase pledge.

Robert Reich (The President's Opening Bid on a Grand Bargain: Aim High) I totally agree and this will have much less of a detriment to the economy. This is a great starting point and let's me in the middle a dollar or revenue for a dollar of spending reductions.

Brinksmanship and the Obama-Bush Tax Cuts, Garett Jones | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty This may be true. We will have to wait and see how it develops. A caveat is that the 2010 showdown happened after the election in which the house was flipped. A second caveat is that the makeup of the democratic majority from 2006-2010 has the blue dog component, which is largely absent from the Democratic house today.

The hardship in Europe

Let’s Not Make a Deal - NYTimes.com : We will see how this goes. One of the most interest part of the story is there were more Democratic votes for the House than Republican.  This tells us how important the State Governorships and legislatures are in determining the control of the House. It also show that having the majority of Progressives in states like California, New York, Illinois, etc allows for greater control of Congress by rural states and not only in the Senate.  

Econbrowser: Finding compromise : While I agree with compromise, this one by one approach will not work.  I would still propose that we wait until January so that we can propose tax cuts and spending restoration to ensue the slope is reasonable. 

Simon Johnson: The Importance of Elizabeth Warren - NYTimes.com : This is good but remember this is incremental not radical change.

Calculated Risk: Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit : I totally agree with Bill that this is NOT a cliff and that January 1st is not a big deal. We can work it out or we can just let it happen. We will then look at a new picture where we already have new revenue and we can work out 'cuts' in some places.

Bruce Bartlett: Romney's Tax Plan and Economic Growth - NYTimes.com :

Econbrowser: To Make the Math Add Up, Romney Needs Ryanomics : These aren't my Ryanomics :(

Designed together to work together | gelightingsolutions.com :

Logix Integrated Ceiling System by USG Corporation :

Econbrowser: Against a Sea of Enemies: China as Currency Manipulator :

By 2015 hard commodity prices will have collapsed : Interesting thoughts - The fall of a cyclical market seems to be common sense but has become uncommon.  Do we ever learn?

We Now Have Our Smallest Government in 45 Years - Jordan Weissmann - The Atlantic : Food for thought.

The US Treasury sold another $5 billion in share of AIG. See article here.  Although there certainly can be some question of how and how much was done in the various aspects of TARP, it has become fairly clear that it was effective in several ways - it lead to many employees not losing their jobs, stabilized the economy and confidence in the economy (in some ways) and did not cost the taxpayers nearly as much as one would think for the headlines.  I do understand that there was some opportunity cost in that we could have spent the money in another fashion or even paid down debt.  The former was extremely unlikely and the later would have made things much worse.  See here for more details.

2012 Presidential Electoral Map | Huffington Post 2012 Election Dashboard :

Alan Simpson Slams Fellow Republicans For Unwillingness To Compromise : 'via Blog this'

Chris Christie Book: N.J. Governor Was Considered For Firing : 'via Blog this'

'via Blog this'

Budget chief: Revenues will fall $635M short of Christie's estimates in coming year | NJ.com : 'via Blog this'

Throwback Thursday: Wright Vs Davis - YouTube :

HCBS Support Waiver for Children & Young Adults with Developmental Disabilities :

Children with Complex Medical Needs (CCMN) Overview :

http://www.henryfarrell.net/Keynes.pdf

Economist's View: The Labor Market Continues to Improve : As Mark Thoma notes that it too early for lawmakers to turn their attention away from job market.  They have left a long time ago - basically after the 2009 stimulus... They was a few minor things since then but nothing of great significance.  However, it is important that they have not gone full swing and switched to any serious federal austerity measures. This can be seen on the near horizon but as long as it is back loaded, mostly after 2014, I believe we will be far along in the recovery in which it might be time to look at reducing the deficit.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent February's Employment Situation

An interesting article form Tax Analysts here . Here is the JCT report from 2010.

Capital Gains vs. Ordinary Income - Economic View - NYTimes.com : This is just plain baloney... Arguing the 'Carl's' sweet equity should be capital doesn't hold logical sense. His labor is labor is labor and should be taxed as such and so should all the other examples. If we don't have any preferential rate then he can no longer make this ridiculous argument.

CRS Report on Corporate Tax Rates Jane Gravelle Senate Testimony Above are links to important discussion related to the US Corporate income tax and why some feel that it is not vastly different, from an effective tax rate, than other countries even though the headline rate is among the very top.  A big issue is accelerate depreciation, which is not the norm around the world but is a very big 'incentive' in the U.S.  It is unclear at whether any capital decisions are made because of accelerated depreciation but there may be some demand pull in various on/off 'bonus' depreciation of the last decade.  The question is whether this 'timing' issues ever economically reverses. More to come later...

Economic Calendar - Bloomberg : Employment Situation Released On 3/9/2012 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2012 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 243,000  204,000  180,000  to 275,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 8.3 % 8.3 % 8.1 % to 8.5 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.4 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 257,000  220,000  195,000  to 285,000  Market Consensus before announcement Nonfarm payroll employment in January advanced 243,000 after jumping 203,000 in December and rising 157,000 in November. The net revisions for November and December were up 60,000. As for some time, private payrolls outstripped the total, increasing 257,000 in January, following a gain of 220,000 in December. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent increase the prior month. The average workweek for all workers in January held steady at 34.5 hours.

D1 Brackets

News Release: Gross Domestic Product : The latest GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate that the output gap narrowed in Q4 2011 at a slightly more rapid pace than previously estimated. The second estimate, released February 29, showed US real GDP growing at a 3 percent annual rate last quarter, up from the 2.8 percent advance estimate released at the end of January. Growth was revised upward for all major sectors of the economy.

Guest Post: Attorney General Holder Says Murder Is Legal This is a tough read and a lot to think about. I don't profess to have easy or pat answers. I have always disagreed with violence at any and all levels but don't think that there is not an easy solution or a close to a consensus.

Bloggers create a new audio media with Odiogo podcasts. : Apparently I do not have enough commentary to use odiogo. So hopefully if I can get more long-winded overtime this will be available on the website.

Europe's Two Depressions - NYTimes.com : Can anyone see that Europe is going the wrong way....

InterMat Wrestling - NCAA Division I brackets released on Wednesday : Brackets to begin at 1 pm (EST) beginning at 125.

Economics in the Crisis - NYTimes.com : A great summary of the crisis. A little hyperbole but great nonetheless. Compromise can be an difficult thing and even when we are 'sure' we are 'right' we can all learn to be humble and willing to meet in the middle. We can continue to debate where the 'true' middle but we should be grateful we were able to get many tastes of fiscal stimulus even if they were not what the IS-LM model would indicate were needed.

http://www.goprincetontigers.com/fls/10600/pdf/Final_2012_EIWA_Brackets.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=10600

http://intermatwrestle.com/Files/pdf/11-12/bigtenchampionships.pdf 'via Blog this'

Calculated Risk: Personal Saving Rate and Income less Transfer Payments :

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2010.pdf

Economist's View: Discrediting Academic Voices :

Economist's View: Did the Stimulus Package Work? :

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY? SEPARATING EVIDENCE FROM IDEOLOGY http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Written%20Version%20of%20Effects%20of%20Fiscal%20Policy.pdf

http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/2009-Stimulus-two-years-later.pdf

Penn State Wrestling Club : Big Ten Brackets

135 lbs Hunter Stieber OH VS Nick Dardanes IL | Team OH @ Jr. Duals (GOhioCasts) | Flowrestling | Flowrestling :

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/pur/sports/m-wrestl/auto_pdf/2011-12/misc_non_event/12BigTenBrackets.pdf

Dardanes loses to Quiroga in the quarter 6-3. This is a bout 3 years ago.

Dispute Process: Questions and Answers -- Health Care Professionals -- Aetna :

Dispute Process -- Health Care Professionals -- Aetna :

DEFINING MEDICAL NECESSITY :

Why Tuition Has Skyrocketed at State Schools - NYTimes.com :

TheMat.com - USA Wrestling : Current US Rankings

Calculated Risk: The Dentist Indicator : T his is an interesting anecdote and a reminder for us all to go to the dentist.

Calculated Risk: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 15.1 million annual rate in February : Good Economic News - the rebirth of Detroit/Michigan continues...

InterMat Wrestling - Twins have sights set on winning Big Ten, NCAA titles :

Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov on the Global Economy: The austerity recovery :

A Crisis in Two Narratives - Raghuram Rajan - Project Syndicate :

Jeremy Lin and the Political Economy of Superstars - Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate :

The Usual Suspect - J. Bradford DeLong - Project Syndicate : So true.

CBO | Trends in the Distribution of Household Income Between 1979 and 2007 : These trends are not surprising but need to be highlighted. This growing income disparity is not good for the overall health of the U.S. economy. However the measure of purchasing power would be more relevant to determine if this disparity is putting the 99% at a worst place or just the 1% at a better place. I have not seen enough empirical data that demonstrates what this trend is. Keep in mind, that even if the the majority only grew by 60 percent of the nearly thirty year period - that could be better off if the goods and services they buy grew at a smaller rate. We all know that didn't happen in housing but the large multi-year correction has brought this closer in line with the 60% increase and it doesn't appear that we have quite bottomed. Just some things I am thinking about.

Economist's View: Fed Watch: Opportunistic Disinflation? : This is interesting if the correlation analysis is true. This is also unfortunate because 2% inflation is way to low as we eek out of this depression...

ataxingmatter: Kooky Tax Protestors! :

IS-LMentary - NYTimes.com : This is good stuff and needs to read multiple slowly and thought through.

Calculated Risk: Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent fall to late '90s Levels : This is another step in the 'right' direction. The long term health of the economy has an important relationship with long term affordability of housing. This affordability must be inline with the purchasing power of prospective buyers, which has been declining over the last 30 years. So were not there but we getting closer.

http://ataxingmatter.blogs.com/tax/2012/02/american-enterprise-institutes-arthur-brooks-on-budgets-and-taxes.html

Seeing Through Data : Things are not all rosy. Michael Olenick does not believe that the 'worst' is behind us.   ' there is not a single credible data point I’ve seen that home prices will increase anytime   soon. They may stabilize if banks control inventory, but by definition that means buyers can wait to see what actually happens rather than what’s predicted to happen.' I am not clear that this not what everyone is saying. There is not an all clear sign and as noted earlier in markets such as Florida, Nevada, California there will be further declines. This is much more of its better than before sign and the all clear will be somewhere between 2015-2018. Second point - 'But for all other buyers, which includes virtually everybody, heed the hindsight of those who purchased homes at every other phantom market bottom and who are now underwater. Wait until you see price appreciation, in the region you want to purchase, for a quarter

January Pending Home Sales Rise, Market on Uptrend : Continued signs of slow but stable improvement.

Energy & Oil Prices: Natural Gas, Electricity and Oil - Bloomberg : A new 'worry' is on the horizon. Is this a bad sign - ie supply or a good sign - increased energy demand. If the latter is true or partly true - that my be the jump start to look at alternative sources that can be absorbed by a growing economy and may even spur on the growth. On the other hand if demand is not really up and this is all supply than the willingness to explore alternative sources will not likely be there and there will simply be a shift in the use of limited resources i.e. I need energy but I only want other durable goods. We'll have to wait to see what is the underlying market movers.

Measuring Housing's Drag on the Economy - NYTimes.com :

NABE Outlook Summary : "The economists surveyed expect housing starts to reach 700,000 units in 2012"

Calculated Risk: Buffett's Views on Housing : The key to forecasting is significant 'wiggle' room or just maintaining the basics over the middle term - zero to five years. The key takeaways are - Housing, related construction and their multiplier effects are important to our overall recovery and they will recover due to the simple relationship of number of units of shelter vs household formation.

My seven point plan to save the eurozone | George Soros :

How to Save the Euro | George Soros :

Economist's View: The Increase in Household Debt Prior to the Crisis is Not a Moral Issue : This very interesting. I haven't quite put my arms around the implications, but there seems to be a real downside to the lack of inflation. The 'stable' prices but no growth in nominal wages have made existing debt burdens more difficult. So we really need so inflation but not general inflation - wage inflation. This seems to be a concept that is more easily understood than implemented. As we saw in the run up to 2007-2008 - we had asset pricing inflation but not corresponding nominal wage inflation.

USG Corporation - Leading the building materials industry.

NCAA Division I Qualifier Allocations Announced - Illinois Matmen Forums :

OPRF Wrestling - Home Page :

Newseum | Screening and Discussion: “Mr. Rogers & Me” :

Mister Rogers and Me DVD - shopPBS.org :

Obama to propose lowering corporate tax rate to 28 percent - The Washington Post : We shall see... This will not be the time for overhaul. You will need a super majority for 'lasting' change.

Calculated Risk: Chicago Fed: Economic Growth in January above Aver... : The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth in January again a...